With the new high on the Silver, it now aligns with the new high on Gold, both markets can now be counted as a possible impulse wave from their respective 2018 low (5 wave rally). So if you are bullish the metals I would strongly suggest some caution here.

If the recent high ended a 5th wave of an impulse wave as shown, then a pullback in 3 waves can be seen to correct the advance from the 2018 lows, that would be a buying opportunity to those that have missed the moves on the metals.

GOLD

SILVER

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Looking at the move from the 2015 lows, we can make the case that an impulse wave (5 wave advance) is in development. The short term gyrations over the last 6 or so months could be counted a couple of ways.

Idea 1

Firstly a triangle could be suggested for wave [4] wave and the upside is part of an ending diagonal for wave [5].

Idea 2

Or wave [4] ended at the Oct 2018 lows and the recent price action has developed as an ending diagonal for wave [5]. Either idea suggests caution for the bulls. To argue for a reversal and move lower, It would need a big move back below 85.00 to support more weakness.

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The relentless trend shown over the last few weeks is one very impressive decline; however I suspect it’s close to ending an impulse wave (5 wave decline). Currently we are tracking 2 ideas that can suggest the recent spike we saw yesterday was a 5^th wave to end the move from the Oct 2018 highs or it’s the end to a 3^rd wave of an impulse wave.

If the next move fails to move above 58.50 – 59.00, then new lows can still be seen to end idea 1 and complete the decline that started from the Oct 2018 highs.

At some stage a large rally is expected, a move higher in 3 waves for either wave B or [B] can setup for further weakness and target the $45.00 area or lower. For now all eyes are on the next advance and see if it can get some momentum above 58.50 -59.00 or not.

Idea 1

Idea 2

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