With the new high its technically possible to label 5 waves from the 2016 lows, however I think its prudent to give the benefit to the bulls, a new high could be counted as a B wave of a running triangle or an expanded flat. Ideally a decline is seen towards 330.00 to end wave C of a triangle. If a move below the Feb 2018 lows, then an expanded flat pattern would be favored to end wave [4].

If you own this stock you want be careful as the new high could be a nasty bull trap.

Idea 1 (running triangle)

Idea 2 (expanded flat)

Idea 3 (topping and ending wave [5] as well as the trend from the 2016 lows).

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The recent short term gyrations can be counted as a completed pattern into 12353, however there is a way to count the recent gyrations as part of an expanded flat for a [x] wave, so that can argue for a spike above 12353 before wave [ii] is completed (see alt idea in blue).

Overall it remains bearish below 12554, allow for a possible new high above 12353.

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With the new low it can potentially be counted as the end to a 5th of 5th wave to complete an impulse wave from the Nov 2017 highs. There is a measured move target just below around 11.45, that may be tested before wave 5 is completed. To suggest a low is in place, it needs a strong move back above 11.77. Short term staying below 11.77 keeps it pointing lower.

Whilst I dont follow USDZAR on a daily basis I like to track a number of US$ pairs and look for clues and an edge when counting the DXY, you can see there is a decent correlation between the DXY and USDZAR from the Nov 2017 highs. I am working the same impulse wave idea (5 wave decline) on the DXY from the Nov 2017 highs

Once we can suggest the move from the Nov 2017 lows has completed an impulse wave then I think we can reasonably expect a decent retracement to correct some of the decline, a move towards 12.60 – 13.00 or higher I think is a good target.

The recent sell off appears to be impulsive looking, so I suspect its part of a larger impulse wave, from what I can count I think it nest counts as the end to a 3rd wave of a 5 wave decline, so a bounce for wave 4, followed by new lows as shown is the favored move over the next few weeks.

There is a substantial weekly support around the 14.00 area, that would be a good area to find buyers to push it higher for wave 4 towards 18.00 – 20.00.

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The recent bounce I think is part of a 4th wave of a larger impulse wave that started from 114.72. Unless a move back above 110.84, then a bounce in 3 waves that stalls around 109.00 – 109.50 can support further weakness for new lows for wave [v] and complete an impulse wave from 114.72.

Note: There are more bullish ideas possible, but it would need a strong move above 110.84 for me to consider those ideas. As the says goes”if its not broke dont try to fix it”. So far the current impulse wave idea we have been tracking for many weeks from 114.72 is working, much to the disgust of the bulls, unless I have a reason to switch ideas a bounce for wave [iv] then new lows for wave [v] is till the favored idea.

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