Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil

Posted on , by Nouf

Snippet taken from the weekend update.

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The impressive decline has the characteristics of what we call a “3rd of 3rd” wave, so its essentially the middle section of an impulse wave, I am still looking for a few more gyrations to complete a 9 swing decline from 72.90. So far I can count 5 swings from 72.90, but as I feel the 3rd wave is the extended wave, then we really want to see some small bounces (ideally capped below 69.00) stay below 70.50, then further weakness to develop what we call a ‘bunch of 3s and 4s” to end the move from 72.90.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Netapp Inc (NTAP)

Posted on , by Nouf

The move into the recent high at 72.88 can potentially argue that the advance from the 2016 lows has finally completed an impulse wave (5 wave advance), it would need a strong move below 66.35 to support further downside and suggest the advance could well have marked a significant peak.

When you look at the previous rally, from 2008 – 2011 its showing a similar advance, both in time and price, which further adds to the evidence that the advance from the 2016 could well have ended.

If you own this stock you may want to lift protective stops to 66.35, If the advance has ended from the 2016 lows, then you dont want to be caught long this stock, as I am expecting a large decline to correct the advance from both the 2016 lows as well as the 2008 lows. If a gap up from earnings (due 23rd May) IMO sell into the rally if you won the stock, and let others buy the stock at the highs or at least stick a stop at 66.35.

Tentatively looking lower below 72.88.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDJPY

Posted on , by Nouf

The advance from 80.49 could be very close (if not already ended) to ending a large 3 wave rally to to correct the prior 5 wave decline from 89.06. Generally a 50% retracement or a test of the prior 4th wave of one lesser degrees is a good target zone for a correction. Whilst its now testing the prior 4th wave, its still got a couple of targets just above around 84.70 – 84.80 that could be tested before the upside has ended.

A strong reversal back below 83.50 would be the first decent clue to suggest the upside could have ended, further weakness under 82.50 would be a strong indication that the rally from 80.49 has likely ended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Moodys Corp (MCO)

Posted on , by Nouf

The spike into new all time highs can be counted as a 5th wave from a triangle 4th wave, in Elliott Wave terms the move would be considered as a terminal advance. A strong reversal back below 163.00 – 160.00 is needed to support further weakness and argue that wave 5 is completed, if the spike is a 5th wave then it can also end a much larger advance that started from the 2016 lows.

If you own this stock you may want to lift stops to 160.00 to lock in any gains you have.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of Microsoft (MSFT)

Posted on , by Nouf

The recent gyration could be counted as either an ending diagonal (bearish rising wedge) for a 5th wave of an impulse wave and potentially completed the advance from the 2015 lows, or wave 4 could be counted as a triangle and a bit more upside for wave 5..

Its never a clear view when you have a couple of similar patterns (ending diagonal and triangles are made up of 3 wave movements). Until we see a much strong move under 93.00 – 90.00 I dont have enough to argue a peak is in place for wave 5, but if we were to see a strong breakdown under 90.00 and an impulsive decline it could well argue that a top is locked in place.

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