The recent gyrations between the April – May 2018 time period could be counted as a large triangle, so it would fit well for a possible 4th wave of a larger impulse wave. The “thrust” from the wave [4] lows, also counts well enough as a 5 wave advance, so this stock could be close to a significant reversal, a strong move back under 340.00 is needed to consider wave [5] as a completed structure, although we really want to see an impulsive decline in 5 waves below 340.00 to feel confident of further weakness.

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Looking at this ETF I can make a decent case that its close to ending wave 3 of a possible impulse wave, so a rally for wave 4 is expected soon, Based on the correlation between this ETF and DXY, it could well argue for a decent pullback on DXY for a possible 4th wave.

A move towards 18.20 – 18.40 is a good area to end wave 4 on EMLC and setup for a move lower.

EMLC

DXY vs EMLC

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The recent new high has enough gyrations to make a strong case that its close to ending an impulse wave form the 2016 lows, whilst wave 5 could extend a little higher, considering the actual structure as well as the prior weekly advance I think the bulls are now on borrowed time and a reversal is likely due. If you own the stock you may wish to lift stops to 104.00 to protect any gains you may have.

An impulse reversal below 140.00 or a small 5 wave decline would offer the first clue to suggest wave 5 has peaked as well as completed the advance from the 2016 lows. It maybe time to get off this trend.

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The recent gyrations on this pair, fit well to suggest its possibly completed wave 3 or wave C, but with the strong upside look it probably suggest its a 3rd wave of an impulse wave, so a pullback in 3 waves towards 3.55 to end wave 4 can setup a rally again for wave 5 and complete a larger impulse wave from the Feb 2018 lows.

So as this pair moves inversely to the EURUSD, we should see a rally on EURUSD as USDPLN moves lower based on the correlation. This is one of the cleaner pairs, hence I am using it as a clue for EURUSD.

Whilst USDPLN is not covered in the Forex package, EURUSD is updated twice a day.

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Last weeks candle is an outside reversal, thats generally a bearish sign, coupled that with a 5 wave looking decline to complete an impulse from 23049, things are look good for the bears. I would like to see a bit more upside to correct some of the decline from last weeks decline, that can offer a setup to sell against 23049 stops (or the equivalent on the futures contract).

Whilst we also saw some weakness on European markets, the US markets held up better, so if you are looking for opportunities to sell, then move to markets that have clear patterns. With the current wave count we are watching on the NIK-225 as well as the outside weekly reversal and impulse wave from 23049, it looks like the bears are about to get things moving against to the downside.

The last time I was bearish on the NIK-225 it yielded a 3000 point drop. See here CLICK HERE

If I correct on my current wave count, then the next decline is a far bigger decline that should take prices well below 18000.

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