When I look at counting the DXY, I also try to correlate the idea I am working with on the DXY with many of USD$ pairs such as USDPLN and USDDKK. The pattern on USDDKK appears to suggest the recent spike is a post thrust from a triangle. Ideally it holds above 6.46 and further upside is seen to end wave [v] to complete 5 waves for wave [v], which would then suggest a potentially completed larger impulse wave from the Feb 2018 lows.

The correlation between the DXY and USDDKK is a strong correlation so it’s worth watching the USDDKK for clues to the DXY. If the current idea on USDDKK is a 5^th wave of a larger impulse wave from the Feb 2018 lows, then its supporting the idea the DXY is close to ending its respective 5^th wave and the trend from the Feb 2018 lows is finally coming to an end and setting up for a large pullback/decline.

If you are long and bullish the US$, be very careful as I think this trend is close to exhaustion and setting up for a reversal on many US$ pairs such as USDKK and USDPLN etc.

USDDKK

USDPLN

DXY vs USDDKK & USDPLN

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In the last post on this stock I was targeting new highs and tracking a couple of ideas, incidentally the gyrations now appear to suggest a running examined flat could have taken place to end wave 4 and the new high is wave 5. If you own this stock it might be a wise decision to consider cashing out and taking the $$$. The large RSI divergence is favoring the idea the new high is likely wave 5 of an impulse wave as shown.

Prior post : https://www.wavepatterntraders.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg/

A strong move below 440.00 is needed to support further downside and argue that wave 5 is completed as well as the trend from the Feb 2018 lows, so a pullback/decline would be favored.

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The sideways price action over the last 4-6 months appears to suggest a triangle, so that would fit well for a 4th wave of an impulse, the strong upside is a classic post thrust from a triangle. In Elliott wave terms we label that as a terminal 5th wave of an impulse wave. Essentially the spike is a terminal move. If you own this stock you may want to consider cashing out, or at least sticking stops at 280.00

A big move back under 280.00 is needed to support further downside and argue the advance from the 2016 could well have ended. The bigger picture idea (not shown) can also for a major top.

Do you have a stock that you want evaluating? Purchase a consultation call and get an independent review through the lens of Elliott Wave. With the US stock markets vibrating around the previous all time highs, it may be prudent to think about protecting any gains you have.

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In the last post I did on this stock I mentioned 3 ideas that could be possible, fast forward and whilst we have many swings over the last 2-3 months, the actual price action is no further forward, it’s pretty much moved sideways. The recent gyrations could be counted as a possible running triangle for wave [4], however the time taken so far is rather large compared to the time taken for wave [2], so it’s a slight concern for the bullish case.

The bearish case is not exactly firing on all cylinders either as the lack of a strong breakdown under 320.00 is still giving the bulls a possible setup for a new all-time high. Whilst it’s above 327.50 the bulls can still suggest new all-time highs to end wave [5]. If a top was really in, then I favor it stays below 360.00 and a big move under 327.50, then 320.00 is seen to argue for more weakness.

Prior post : https://www.wavepatterntraders.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-boeing-ba-3/

Alt idea

Top is in, holds below 360.00 a big move under 320.00 is seen to support a breakdown.

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Is now the time to be buying AUDUSD?

I have been working the idea of an impulse wave (5 wave decline) from the Jan 2018 highs; the recent sideways rice action is reminiscent of a possible triangle. For those readers that have some knowledge of Elliott Wave you may well know that triangles are very common in the 4^th wave position of an impulse wave. So new lows are still favored for a 5^th wave, ideally we see a test of 0.7250, but any new low would suffice.

Barring a big move above 0.7600, allow for new lows for wave [v], its then traders can turn far more bullish and look for a significant low to be put in and setup for a large rally to correct the decline from the Jan 2018 highs (0.8134).

DXY vs AUDUSD

Whilst AUDUSD is not part of the DXY, the correlation between the two markets is decent enough to warrant watching. I suspect a low on AUDUSD will be accompanied by a top on the DXY. So as the DXY ends an impulse wave from the 2018 lows, the AUDUSD ends an impulse wave from the 2018 highs.

Summary

In summary, I believe its time to consider looking to buy assets or markets that will rally as the US dollar (DXY) reverses and moves lower as the current trends from the start of 2018 are setting up to reverse. Readers can chose between a number of markets, but buying either AUDUSD or EURUSD once their respective patterns are complete, are two markets that readers could participate in.

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