The recent rally from the lows made in December 2018 appears to be in 3 waves, so I suspected it a 4th wave as part of either idea, at this stage, I would still expect to see a new low based on both of the ideas. The difference is that one idea will end an impulse wave (5 wave decline)  and complete the decline from the highs made in Jan 2018. The other idea would still see a bounce, however a new low thereafter would be favored.

I can see the pros and cons for both ideas, but I would turn more bullish from a new low as even the less bullish idea (idea 2) would imply a rally again for wave [4]. So it would present a bullish opportunity below the lows made in December around $54.00 – 49.00.

Holding below 88.52 would further support a move lower, although it needs a break back below 70.00 to argue for new lows.

Idea 1

Idea 2

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With the new high today, it can potentially end an impulse wave (5 wave advance) from the Feb 2019 lows (10859)  and further suggest the end to a larger 3 wave advance (zigzag correction), a strong move back below 11400, then 11300 is further needed to argue for a move lower.

If the current advance is a 3 wave move ie: [a][b][c], then we can expect a new low back below the Dec 2018 low (10268) as the current advance is simply a bear market rally in an ongoing bear market that started in Jan 2018.

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The move from $51.62 can be counted as an impulse wave (5 wave advance). However, based on how the current decline develops from $57.81, will help decide if the move from $51.62 – 57.81 is all of wave [c] or only wave [i] of wave [c].

So how will we know?

If a 3 wave decline from $57.81 stays above $51.62, then it will support idea 1 and a bullish bias for a move higher towards $62.00 – 64.00.

Idea 1

If a strong break below $51.62 then it will support idea 2 and a more bearish idea and potentially argue that the whole move from the Dec 2018 low has ended, so the current move from 57.81 needs to be watched carefully as it can have big implications for the next significant move.

Idea 2

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Whilst it’s above $194.00 I would allow for a dip then further upside, wave 5 still appears to be missing a down-up sequence to complete 5 waves from the Nov 2018 lows. The pattern appears to be supporting an impulse wave from its all-time low (inception), however, unless a break back below $194.00 I would still allow for a down-up series of moves as shown before wave 5 is completed.

With the euphoric sentiment surrounding this stock, it could be a good sign to consider selling some of any position you may have, and deploying that money elsewhere and look for stocks that are ready to move higher rather than chasing stocks that have already rallied.

“NOW” is probably not the time to be buying this stock.

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The monthly chart could well be arguing for a significant peak soon, counting the more definitive waves from its inception, it appears to support a potential impulse wave. It would look best if a marginal new all-time high was seen to complete wave 5 and develop 5 clear waves from both the low in 2016 and from its all-time low.

Now could be a great time to consider taking the money and look to put that money to work elsewhere in beaten down areas or stocks. A pullback in 3 waves towards $50.00 -45.00 once wave 5 is completed is a very realistic target.

Warren Buffett: Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy.

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