The new high into $248.71 can be counted as an impulse wave, there are enough gyrations to argue for a completed pattern. Short term if the market remains below $245.77, then more immediate weakness is favored. A strong move under $235.00 would help argue for more weakness.

A move above $245.77 likely argues for new highs above $248.71 for the alt idea to end wave 5 of an impulse wave from the Dec 2018 low.

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The new high can be counted as a possible 5th wave of an impulse wave ( 5 wave advance) that started from the Dec 2018 low. A strong move below $50.00, as well as an impulsive decline, is needed to support a reversal and further weakness to lock in a peak for wave 5.

Looking at the larger time frame, the new high and completion of the more from the Dec 2018 low, could also be the end to a larger impulse wave that started from the 2016 low. A decline in 3 waves towards $35.00 – 30.00 is a good target to end a correction to the advance from the 2016 low.

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With the new high it’s now possible to suggest a completed impulse wave from the 25th March low. So a pullback/decline is favored soon, a strong move below 292.50 is needed to further argue for a move lower. There is a way to allow for a minor new high to end wave 5 (see insert), I would again look for a rejection and a move back under 292.50 to support a decline.

Based on the bigger picture wave count for the Dec 2018 low,  the recent high could well be an important one. A decline in 5 waves would be a strong sign to support a reversal and further weakness.

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Whilst it’s above $238.65 the trend can continue to push a bit higher to end wave [5] of a large impulse wave (5 wave advance) from the Dec 2018 low. A similar pattern is also developing on Visa (V). The move from the Dec low is important as the completion of a 5 wave decline could end a much larger impulse wave (5 wave advance) from the all-time low made back in 2006.

An impulsive decline below $238.00 – 235.00 would be the first sign to potentially argue the upside for wave [5] had ended. The large RSI divergence on the monthly is also supportive that the current rally from the Dec low is likely a 5th wave of an impulse wave that started from the 2006 low.

Note:

The clear patterns on many stocks from the Dec 2018 low can also provide clues to the INDU and SPX.

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With the minor new high it can now complete a possible impulse wave from 11847, a reversal back below 12182 is needed to support a decline and argue that the recent high has completed an impulse wave (5 wave advance) from 11847. Further weakness under 12100, coupled with an impulse decline would help the idea of a move lower.

Based on the bigger picture idea from the Dec low, the current move from 11847 could be the end to a significant advance and suggest a much larger decline is close at hand.

A more bullish bias to the market would be considered if the market only saw a 3 wave pullback remains above 11847, any bearish idea needs a completed reversal of the advance from 11847.

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