Thats one impressive trend, but like all good trends they eventually come to an end. Counting from the 2008 lows I am working the idea this stock is tracing out an impulse wave, currently it appears to be in wave 5, and a closer inspection suggests its possibly now in a 5th of 5th, so the essentially the last wave of the whole move. A strong reversal back under 155.00 is needed to suggest a possible peak in place.

If you happen to own this stock, then I suggest maybe sticking a sell stop at that area and protecting your gains.

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In the last post we were looking for a spike to new highs  http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdtry-2/  Back then I felt that wave [5] did not look completed. Fast forward we now have that new high and a possible 5 wave advance from the triangle. What that simply means is that there are enough gyrations to count this whole advance from the 2008 lows as a completed 5 wave advance.

A strong move back under 3.500 is needed to suggest a potential reversal.

Wave 5 may see a bit more upside before its completed, although its also possible that it morphs into a running triangle for wave 4. Short term there are some options, but the weekly chart supports the case that a peak is likely close by.

Aggressive traders should put this pair on their watch lists and wait for signs of a reversal. If the current wave count is current the Turkish Lira is about to starting fighting and we see a nasty reversal to the downside.

There could be a short term opportunity for aggressive traders if buyers support this stock around $45.60 – 44.00. From the Jun 2016 lows it could be involved in an impulse wave, so the current decline is a 4th wave pullback, a common target is the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree which would be around $45.60.

Technically speaking its valid if any decline remains above 36.79 as until that happens wave 4 does not overlap with the top of wave 1. But from a “look” perspective I would like to see hold above $42.00 if further weakness is going to be seen, ideally it finds support in the red zoned area to target new highs for wave 5 towards $52.00.

There is not much to work with on the weekly chart, but if we did see a 5 wave advance from the Jun 2016 lows, a 3 wave pullback thereafter would be a buying opportunity.

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This could well have a major low in place, its been declining for years, the reasons why its been declining are not that important, although I would be a fool to say you should completely ignore the fundamentals, but if you do your due diligence and this stock shows promise, then a 3 wave pullback could well offer bullish traders an opportunity.

There is a clear 5 wave rally from the lows at 1.44, so simply put a 3 wave pull back is a buying opportunity, the risk control point is to 1.44.

There is great risk, but with that risk comes great reward. At least we know it has a clear risk control point at 1.44. Below that area is simply wrong.

There is a possibility of bankruptcy http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/business/article_6fac1992-99ed-11e6-bd78-ff17268589e2.html.

There are many Oil refinery stocks that are at risk to bankruptcy, but if you can pick a few good ones with strong potential patterns, the winners should outweigh the losers once Crude oil eventually rallies and earnings increase. As I say high risk, high reward.

Note: if you are a member reading this post and you have access to the US markets section, let me know if you want this stock to be updated, you need to track this yourself, but if you are looking to buy a pullback. Send me an email and I will add an update to the site.

Do you have a stock that you want analyzing? Then why not purchase an Elliott Wave Report, it may just save you a small fortune.