The last 2 highs have been met with a strong RSI divergence, so I suspect the last high is a large 5th wave of an impulse wave that started from the lows in 2014. So far the weekly candle is potentially showing a shooting star, so the bulls want to pay attention to this stock as the wave structure coupled with a potential weekly shooting stare could well suggest wave [5] of an impulse wave is completed.

Elliott Wave suggests whenever an impulse wave is completed, a retracement in 3 waves to the previous 4th wave can be expected, so in this case 26.00 would be the initial target, although more weakness could be seen. If you own this stock you may want to think about cashing out or taking some money off the table.

When you look at the volume in the last rally its clearly showing weakness, thats further supporting the idea the last rally is likley a 5th wave as shown. Caution is needed if you own this stock. For traders, this stock could present an opportunity to sell this stock.

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This stock is a potential key stock for a couple of markets as its a big weighted stock in both the SMH and AEX. The spike to a new high can still be counted as a 5th wave as the recent gyrations appear to be a thrust from a 4th wave triangle. If you have some knowledge of Elliott Wave, then you will likely know that a thrust form a 4th wave triangle of an impulse wave is a terminal move.

A strong move back below 154.30 is needed to suggest wave 5 is completed and potentially complete larger 5th wave of an impulse wave from the 2009 lows. The large RSI divergence is also supportive of a 5th wave and completion of an impulse wave from the 2016 lows.

Do you have a stock that you want evaluating? Purchase a consultation call and get an independent review through the lens of Elliott Wave. With the US stock markets vibrating around the previous all time highs, it may be prudent to think about protecting any gains you have.

Click here to purchase a consultation call CLICK HERE

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The advance from the Sept 2017 lows still appears to need a 4th and 5th wave to develop an impulse wave. Currently I favor a little more weakness to ed wave [iv], followed by further upside to end wave [v], so I am still expecting higher rates, but I dont think wave [iv] is quite finished. It would need a big move under 2.62 – 2.60 to question the idea that a decline is a 4th wave as I am showing.

Once 5 waves are finished from the Sept 2017 lows, we can then expect a sizable pullback in interest rates before resumption to the upside.

The decline into Feb 2018 lows counts well enough as a 5 wave decline from 1.1831, a corrective bounce towards 1.1600 or higher is ideally seen to end wave 2 of a much larger impulse wave. Once wave 2 is completed I am expecting a significant reversal and move back below 1.1450, and eventually a move below 1.1000.

Significant resistance starts to be tested from 1.1600 – 10.1675, thats a good area for wave [y] of wave 2 to end. A strong move back below 1.1500 is needed to suggest the upside had ended.

Whilst I dont follow this pair that often, there are times it shines out as a clear pattern I think now is one of those clear setups.

One of the reasons why I suspect some of the US markets could still be in a large 4th wave of an impulse wave that started from the Feb 2016 lows, is the look on the FTSE All World Index. The spike into the high is showing an extreme on its RSI, we tend to see that on 3rd waves. Its VERY rare to see a market spike into a high and then collapse. I am not saying its not possible, but generally we see a period of distribution before a major top like we saw into the 2011 and 2015 peaks. We saw the same into the 2007 top if you were around trading that time frame.

Whilst its possible to actually count 5 waves from the Feb 2016 lows, the internal waves are a little small, so the look is not great, hence I am showing that idea as an alt idea to suggest the advance has ended from the Feb 2016 lows.

I am currently tracking 2 ideas on the 3 major US indexes NDX, SPX and INDU, which all allow for a pullback for wave [4], followed by new all time highs. Or if a major top is in at the Jan 2018 highs, then it would need an impulsive decline in 5 waves from the Jan 2018 highs to suggest the upside has ended from the Feb 2016 lows and thus the whole bull market from the March 2009 lows.

A retest of the Feb 2018 lows that holds can still allow for a new all time highs on some world markets.