The decline on EURUSD from the 17th April highs appears to count well as a possible impulse wave, a minor new low is needed for wave [v]. Its then I would look for signs of a low to setup for a bounce.

If the EURUSD is going to decline and a larger decline is in progress, then any upside simply needs to remain as a 3 wave bounce and stay below 12412. Any bullish case needs a far more aggressive rally above 12412. So traders can use 12412 as a key level for direction, staying below 12412 can support more weakness.

USDDKK

This pair is pretty much the opposite to EURUSD, a minor new high can complete an impulse wave from 5.998 and setup for a pullback, if the next pullback is in 3 waves, then it will offer a bullish setup for further upside against 5.998 stops. It would need a strong breakdown under 5.998 to support a bearish bias, and likley see EURUSD move above 12412.

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With the spike to new high its now possible to count 5 waves from the 2016 lows, which in turn could also be counted as the end to a larger impulse wave that started from the 2009 lows. So if you own this stock, you may want to seriously consider cashing out or at least lifting protective stops to 60.00.

The primary idea is to see a big decline now and a substantial move lower to correct the advance, initial targets reside around 50.00, then 45.00. The alt idea I am also watching is that the current setup gyrations develop into a larger triangle for wave 4 of wave [5], then we see spike to new highs to end wave [5], and finally complete the advance from the 2009 lows. If any upside fails to move above 70.00 it could be a subtle warning that a top is now in place at 71.72. If the alt idea is in progress, I favor any weakness holds above 60.00.

Alt idea

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Looking at the whole structure from the 2016 lows it still appears to be missing a new high to develop a 9 swing advance to complete an impulse wave  (9 swings = either wave 1, 3,5 is an extended wave, usually wave 3). I am watching a couple of ideas, Wave 4 may take the form of a triangle, so it stays above 131.00 and chop sideways before a thrust to new highs. Or the current idea is a small [b] wave triangle as part of wave 4 and setup for a thrust for wave [c] back below 131.00 to end wave 4, then reverses back to new all time highs for wave 5.

If the last low at 133.42 holds then I favor its now in wave [d] of the triangle idea, so a move towards 144.00  – 143.50 would be a target before a pullback for wave [e]. It would need a big move below 115.60 to suggest soemthing is wrong with the current idea.

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The recent high in March 2018 failed to make a new high, so as the look from the Feb 2018 lows appears to in 3 waves, I favor its most likely a [b] wave of either a flat pattern or a triangle pattern. Short term whilst the market stays below 93.51 I think we could see further weakness towards 85.00 – 86.00 for wave [c] of a triangle or even a spike below 82.00 for wave [c] of a flat pattern if we see a 5 wave decline from the March 2018 highs (97.86).

Its too early to suggest a peak in place and the trend from the 2016 lows is completed. For now I would at least give the benefit to the idea wave 4 is still on-going as one of the patterns shown. It would need a strong move below 75.00 to suggest the trend for the 2016 lows is over.

Short term looking lower under 93.51 towards 86.00 or lower based on which of the short term ideas is in progress for wave 4.

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The new high could be a potential important peak, the advance from the 2012 lows now has enough gyrations to make a case for the competition of an impulse wave (5 wave advance). Furthermore the move from the 2016 can also be counted as a 5 wave move as well.

If it stays below 131.25 and we see a strong break under 120.00, then 115.00, it could well see a much larger decline, as the advance from 2016 and 2012 has likely ended. If you own the stock you may want to pay close attention if a strong break under 120.00 – 115.00 is seen.

Tentatively ended the advance from the 2016 lows at 131.25. Further downside is needed to support a reversal.

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