Has this finally ran out of gas?? The recent set of gyrations appear as a bearish rising wedge, Elliott Wave calls this an ending diagonal. Looking at the prior gyrations I can make a strong case that the high into the Jun highs was the end to wave 5 of an ending diagonal as well as the end to a much larger impulse wave that started from the Feb 2016 lows.

So what does that imply?

Simply put if the Jun highs marked the end to the trend from the Feb 2016 lows, then we can expect a significant decline to correct the advance which counts well as a 5 wave move. Ideally any upside is capped below  148.20, that should favor further downside.

Looking lower below the Jun 2018 highs. Target 100.00 – 85.00.

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The short term gyrations from the April lows can be counted as either a completed zigzag (my favored idea), or possibly part of an impulse wave (5 wave advance), so the current pullback is a 4th wave and it will see new highs. If it remains below 355.41 and continues to push below 310.00 then it will further support a move lower and argue that a full retracement of the advance from 244.70 is likely to be seen.

If the current decline is wave [iv] of an impulse wave, then I would expect a reversal back above 355.41 to support further upside for wave [v] towards 380.00.

Bearish

Bullish

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Counting the move from the 2015 lows, there are enough gyrations to count the advance as a completed impulse wave (5 wave advance). A strong reversal back below 190.00 is needed to support further weakness and suggest wave [5] has ended.

If you own this stock be VERY careful, if the current advance has ended or ended wave [5] , we can expect a sustainable move lower to correct the advance from the 2015 (all time lows). Initial targets would be 170.00, then 140.00.

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Counting the advance from the 2016 lows (US markets put in a low in 2016) the move can be counted as a clean looking impulse wave (5 wave advance). So I suspect its closing on a peak for wave [5], it needs a strong reversal back under 75.00 to consider further weakness and make the case wave [5] has ended. So if you own this stock I would recommend you lifts stop to 75.00, that way you can protect any gains you may have and not suffer a serious drawn down.

There is a measured move target just above 86.00, thats a good area for the upside to find sellers.

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Counting the move from the lows at 6425, the new high on the NDX can now be counted as a possible completed impulse wave. However we want to be a little cautious as I am also tracking another, more bullish idea that can support further upside after a pullback towards 7070-7100. The more bearish idea needs to develop a 5 wave looking decline below 7050, that would be the first strong bearish clue we could use, any subsequent bounce in 3 waves would offer a setup to sell. If the next decline fails to breakdown below 7050 or it appears to be a corrective decline in 3 waves, then the odds would shift to the more bullish idea (idea 1) and support a continuation higher.

Depending on which of the ideas is in progress for the NDX, will likely have a strong impact to the SPX and INDU, as I am currently tracking two ideas for both the INDU and SPX that can suggest either a peak is setting up for a large second wave and a big move lower will be seen, or potentially a new all time high will be seen for both the SPX and INDU. I think the key lies with the next decline on the NDX.

If the SPX and INDU fails to confirm the NDX new all time highs, that is a clear bearish non-confirmation, much like we saw at the March 2018 highs.

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